Word: forecasting
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ZOLLARS There are short-term impediments--elections, hurricanes, oil. But the underlying economy still feels strong. Our forecast is for this expansion to continue at least through 2005. Sometimes it's hard for the markets to look through short-term obstacles. I always rely on our shipping data for a view of where the economy is going, and right now it's telling me we're in the middle of an expansion...
...After years of surprisingly strong growth, Asian economies are slowing down. In October, Morgan Stanley downgraded its 2005 GDP growth forecast for the region (excluding Japan) to 5.5%, compared with 7.2% in 2004. The main culprits are the record-high price of oil, an expected weakening of the U.S. economy and an ailing dollar, which makes Asian products more expensive for U.S. consumers and curbs export growth. But a new factor putting the brakes on Asia is China. Over the past two years, soaring demand from China for everything from steel to palm oil to semiconductors has been the engine...
...Japan won't be the only country suffering. In late October, India's central bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to a range of 6-6.5%, citing a mediocre monsoon season and high oil prices. Last year, the economy grew 8.2%. Southeast Asia, too, will see a decline, from 5.8% growth this year to 4.4% in 2005, according to Merrill Lynch. In Indonesia, the region's most populous country, hopes are running high that new President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will push through tough reforms and woo back the investment needed to spur the sagging economy...
...national security was ill-judged - Latham argued the focus should be on the local region, while Howard urged Australians not to "cut and run" by choosing Labor's plan to withdraw Australia's relatively small military contingent from Iraq - attention soon drifted back to interest rates. And when the forecast budget surplus for 2004-05 doubled to $A5.3 billion, both parties suddenly had the money for extravagant promises...
...someone "who never stands behind people, nor in front of them - he stands side by side with them." She gets a cheer, but former Labor leader Kim Beazley draws groans while being interviewed on the screen, when he argues that the result is better than some internal polls had forecast; he even manages to squeeze in the word "terrific...