Word: forecasts
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...always, economists are making predictions anyway. The general forecast for 1974 is glum: headlong inflation and a marked slowing in production, jobs, income and profits. It all adds up to a mild recession or something close to it in the first six months, with some quickening of the economic pulse thereafter. Even this lackluster prediction is hedged with qualifications because, as the Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. circumspectly notes: "The range of downside possibilities in the coming year is a good deal wider than it has been in a long, long time...
...forecasting the future for Europe as a whole is the performance of the three biggest economies-those of West Germany, France and Britain. Smaller nations are so heavily dependent on them that they cannot hope to immunize themselves from the Big Three's economic ailments. Professor Jan Pen of the University of Groningen says: "To forecast employment and output in The Netherlands, we must first ask how our chief trading partners will fare." Reports from the key economies...
WEST GERMANY. Before the oil cutbacks and price rises, the Institute for Economic Research forecast growth of only 3% in 1974, or half the rate achieved this year. A study completed this month and assuming that energy supplies fall 10% to 11% short of meeting demand suggests that growth may be virtually zero. If that happens, unemployment will more than double, to about 2.7% of the labor force; the hardest blow, however, will fall not on Germans but on the many foreign workers in German factories. Real personal income will fall. Output of the auto, construction and household-appliance industries...
...investment men are already predicting that it would not last; everyone knows only too well that the unpredictable Arabs can always turn off the flow again. Analysts who can usually produce a string of "buy" recommendations every day are throwing up their hands; they complain that they simply cannot forecast 1974 or 1975 earnings of major companies. About the only stocks they can recommend are those of a handful of firms that stand to benefit from the energy crisis: coal companies, some railroads, makers of mining and drilling gear and firms that design or make equipment for power stations...
...powerful enough to stifle independent competition. Even if there were enough oil this year, there would not be enough U.S. refinery capacity to process it because the companies have built no new refineries in the U.S. for at least two years. "Couldn't the oil companies have forecast the fact that they were going to be short of gasoline by this year?" Roberts asks. "The answer is absolutely yes. Those companies have good economists, and they had to have known that some time in 1973 they would bump up against the restraints of their refining capacity." Oilmen retort that...