Word: forecasts
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...Recession? Economist Rinfret wants to be taken seriously, and he often is. Part of his record, at least, merits respect. He correctly forecast a business downturn in 1961, a superboom following the 1964 tax cuts, and a great leap in defense spending after the 1966 escalation of the Viet Nam War. He has been right for the past two years in anticipating severe inflation, tight money and record-high interest rates. Many cash-shy corporations, he warned, could not stop borrowing, no matter how costly it became. On the other hand, he failed to foresee that industrial production would decline...
Ruefully, Rinfret concedes: "That got me a lot of bad publicity." Even so, he still defends that forecast as technically accurate, because classic recessions have involved, for example, sharper rises in unemployment and declines in production than the U.S. has experienced. But of late he has vacillated. "The only way to solve inflation is by a recession," he wrote two months ago, "and that is the way we seem to be heading." After President Nixon's latest speech on the economy, Rinfret again changed his mind. "It was a turning point in economic policy," he says. "The odds modestly...
...increase six months before schedule, the last hopes of a surplus vanished. Budget Director Mayo disclosed last week that the budget will show a $1.8 billion deficit this fiscal year, and a $1.3 billion deficit next year. Even those estimates may be optimistic. They are based on a January forecast that taxable corporate profits would hit $89.5 billion this year. In the year's first quarter, profits ran at a rate of only $85 billion. Unless the business upturn foreseen in the game plan starts soon, the U.S. stands to run a much deeper budget deficit...
...invention of murder is even more ingenious: Cain learns how to kill Abel with the trial-and-error self-instruction of a man inventing the first wheel. All ends on a chorus of Moonlight Bay that seems to forecast with terrifying accuracy the sweetly ominous banality of millions of lives to come as sex and murder endlessly cycle...
Last week's outbreak of "fatigue" among the controllers, the cause of the third air-traffic snarl in 20 months, had been forecast by PATCO a week in advance. Like the massive "slowdown" of the summer of 1968, the "sick-out" was another tactic in Bailey's continuing campaign to win PATCO recognition as sole bargainer for the controllers. The cause célèbre this time was the fate of three activist PATCO members in the FAA's Baton Rouge control tower. The agency has been trying to transfer the three for months...