Word: forecasts
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...Administration says that the budget deficit for the current fiscal year will be 5% higher than previously forecast which will puts the number above $1.8 trillion. The spread between the old number and the new one is $89 billion. The White House figure now matches the estimate of the Congressional Budget Office, an estimate which the Administration had earlier disputed...
...Administration's initial forecast, provided by the Office of Management and Budget, never had a chance. While the costs in the document might have been controlled well enough to meet expense estimates, the rate at which the economy is coming unhinged always meant that the amount of money which was supposed to come in from taxes was always at risk. OMB now says tax receipts will drop a breathtaking 15% compared with last year. (See pictures of the Top 10 scared traders...
...Administration may find that it would be better off to hold its tongue about the rate at which the deficit is growing. It is still forecasting that GDP will only drop 1.2% in 2009. That number is clearly improbable which should shake whatever confidence the taxpayers have in the forecast. Anyone watching the process of budget revision as the bottom line gets progressively worse understands that a $2 trillion deficit for the year is possible, and perhaps likely...
...There was remarkably little noise from those who might be concerned about the forecast of the increasing deficit. Those in the government who oppose big spending know that taking out programs which are supposed to be integral to an economic recovery would be considered unpatriotic. A focus on the falling tax receipts does not have a benefit except to emphasize hopelessness...
Unemployment could be nearly 10% by mid-year, and it could stay at that level for several quarters. That is clearly not part of Mr. Bernanke's forecast. It is not in the model because it has not happened since the recession of the 1980s and employment improved fairly quickly after hitting a peak at just over 10%. That recession twenty five years ago was not as bad as this one, at least according to experts. Amateur economists might believe that a worse recession would probably cause worse unemployment...