Word: forecasts
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Part of that news remains as bad as ever. Testifying to the Senate Budget Committee last week, Alan Greenspan, the President's chief economist, forecast that the real gross national product would drop at an annual rate of more than 10% in the current quarter. That would be the fifth straight quarterly decline as well as the sharpest contraction for any quarter since World War II. Industrial production in February alone was off 3%, making five successive months of decline. Greenspan, who had previously predicted that unemployment would peak at 8.5%, now said that it would climb higher than...
...Simon and other conservatives fear that overstimulation will aggravate inflation just when it seems to be coming under control. They would much prefer the smaller, $22 billion tax-cut proposal, which they figure would be enough to bring on recovery soon after midyear. One dissenter to the mildly optimistic forecast is Arthur Okun. He reckons that even with a tax cut, recovery could be six months off-and perhaps longer. Reason: the full effect of the big drop in employment and incomes has yet to show up in consumer spending, and Okun figures that retail sales will fall during...
...National Weather Service uses all the ingenuity of science to forecast sun or rain including satellite pictures of storm patterns and complex computer printouts. On the other hand, a three-year-old 1,400-lb. cow named Bramer trusts more to instinct. When she senses that bad weather is coming the next day, she beds down in her straw-lined stall in Huntsville, Texas. When some thing tells her that a sunny day is due on the morrow, she ventures forth to graze, even if the weather at that moment is drizzly...
...Louis, Chicago, Minneapolis and Washington, President Ford's budget and the grim economic message accompanying it were being released to Congress and the press. Ford's predictions of continuing high inflation, falling production and three years of at least 7% unemployment amply fulfilled Board members' December forecast of the worst slump since the 1940s. Not surprisingly, the Administration's economy and energy policies stirred a sharp and critical response from conservative as well as liberal Board members (see ECONOMY & BUSINESS...
Wealth means power, and the sharp rise in oil prices promises to bring a great deal more of that to the producers' cartel. Last May the World Bank startled the international community with a grim forecast that oil country surpluses would reach $653 billion by 1980, and an incredible $1.2 trillion by 1985. Surpluses on this scale would mean deep deficits and an era of unprecedented political and economic strains among the consuming countries...