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...economy rebounds, many types of bonds will become riskier, if only because when rates inevitably head back up, the value of today's low-yielding bonds will fall. (It's that old formula: rates up, bonds down.) The parallels between today and 1993-94 may be instructive. Back then, a slow, jobless recovery and falling rates prompted many people to pile into long-term bonds--which typically yield more than short-term ones--and they got creamed when interest rates rose sharply...
...thought of Bond on a mission of self-discovery makes you queasy, relax. As guardians of the 007 legacy, Broccoli and Wilson won't mess with the formula. They constantly field suggestions to tweak the franchise, but most times "Barbara and I have to say no--to casting someone inappropriate, to making it into a buddy picture," says Wilson. "The principle is what Cubby said, 'Don't screw...
However, a garden-variety Statistics 100 course doesn’t come close to teaching you how to figure out an OERA. Morris’ contribution was to derive a simple formula, RPG, that calculated OERA without advanced techniques. “This [OERA] paper lay dormant [until] Morris found a simple formula for it,” Cover says. “He has made it a worthwhile statistic. I’m involved in the past history of it, but Morris is the one who’s made this work...
Morris’ RPG formula can be approximated by just three components. First is the on-base odds, or the ratio of times a player reaches base to the number of times he makes an out. Second is a statistic Morris calls batting texture, which is the average contribution relative to a single a player makes when he reaches base. Walks are worth three-quarters of a single, doubles 1.5 times as much, triples twice as much and home runs three times as much, so a player whose plate appearances resulted only in doubles and outs would have a batting...
Morris says he developed the simple RPG formula over 20 years ago, but only began calling sportswriters to let them know about the statistic when he calculated that a team of nine 2002 Bondses would score an astronomical 22.4 runs per game—smashing the record held by Babe Ruth of 18.5 runs per nine innings in 1923. “What’s bugging me,” he says, “is that this incredible thing is happening and nobody notices. I wanted to make sure people knew it. Imagine if when Bonds...