Word: formula
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...where the mind of a statistics professor is wont to dwell. But as a J.D. Drew fly ball to centerfield leaves the runners stranded and the Cardinals scoreless in the first, Morris returns to his chart. Taking out a mechanical blue pencil and scientific calculator, Morris lays out the formula for the new all-in-one offensive statistic he has developed, Runs Per Game...
...featured in a column on ESPN.com. A slightly frail-looking white-haired 62-year-old whose athletic career peaked on his high school tennis team, Morris would seem an unlikely subject for a feature on the sports website. But Morris’s efforts to promote RPG, a statistical formula that predicts how many runs a lineup of nine of the same player would score in a game, earned him a column focusing on the statistic and its new record-holder, Barry Bonds (who happens to be fourth up in the bottom of the first). The formula...
Unlike the statistics that appear on the back of a baseball card, which are either counting (total home runs or wins) or percentage (batting average or slugging percentage), Morris’s formula was derived from a technique in academic statistics known as Markovian modeling, which he says makes it qualitatively different from any statistic a casual fan would be familiar with. RPG, Morris says, takes much of the interpretation out of statistics (different fans may value on-base percentage or RBI differently, and sabermetricians frequently assign debatable weights to statistics such as stolen bases) and says with statistical certainty...
...solid measure of things...If I have nine players of equal ability, this is exactly what would happen. You can prove it’s right using math a good high school student would know. If you played baseball on the moon and averaged 300 runs a game, the formula would still be legitimate...
Slesar says there’s no formula for the proper amount or kind of spices—it’s an art. Meyers adds that with his own brews he always errs on the more subtle side with spices, while DeBisschop tells him the most important thing is to “write down what you do so that you can repeat it if you want...