Word: franciscos
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...While the punch packed by these waves tends to diminish as the distance from the fault increases, that's not always the case. From historical accounts, USGS seismologist Jack Boatwright has assembled a ShakeMap for 1906--a map that displays the intensity of shaking in different areas. For San Francisco and other communities close to the San Andreas, it was quite severe. But even more severe was the shaking that occurred in the city of Santa Rosa, more than 15 miles away from the fault. On a scale of 1 to 10, Santa Rosa stands out as a 9-plus...
...photographs, Prentice has found a number of the missing signs of 1906--abrupt jogs in fences that once straddled the rupture zone, for example--and located them on aerial photos. Among the communities bisected by the fault break is San Bruno, a city of 40,000 that borders San Francisco international airport...
...computer, Aagaard first conjures up the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which started, many scientists think, along a spur of the San Andreas some 60 miles south of San Francisco. Across a Landsat image of the Bay Area, Aagaard's simulation takes the form of a spreading blob of mixed colors that indicate shaking intensities, from low-intensity blue to medium-intensity yellow and high-intensity red. Then Aagaard calls up 1906. The difference is immediately apparent. This time red flows across the landscape like a river of lava, and among the places that glow the brightest is the area around...
...Andreas system will unleash an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or higher over the next three decades, and among the most likely candidates is the Hayward Fault. The last big earthquake on the Hayward occurred in 1868; it caused so much damage that it was known as the great San Francisco earthquake until 1906 displaced it. "The Hayward Fault is locked and loaded," says Brocher, "and it could fire at any time...
Aagaard and his colleagues have started using their earthquake simulator to try to answer the most tantalizing questions of all: What if the rupture of the fault had not started directly off the San Francisco coastline? What if it had started farther south, so that instead of breaking away from the city it had aimed right toward it? What if it had started farther north and broken south? In the first instance, the tentative answer is that San Francisco gets shaken even harder; in the second, it's Silicon Valley and the Livermore Valley that find themselves clamped...