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...should markets be better forecasters than polls? Economist Friedrich von Hayek argued that markets efficiently gather information held by widely dispersed people, summarizing it in the form of prices. In speculative markets, traders and bettors are rewarded only if they correctly predict future prices. That, Wolfers says, motivates them to get the best information they can, ignoring trivia and trends. "The market seems pretty highly attuned to news that affects the election outcome," Wolfers says. "That's not always the same as what the papers report. The market is unlikely to react to things like party conferences and policy speeches...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: For a Winner, Follow the Money | 8/31/2004 | See Source »

Surowiecki's thesis posits an uncanny and generally unconscious collective intelligence working not by top-down diktat but rather in dynamic arrangements of what the economist Friedrich Hayek called "spontaneous order." Surowiecki cites the giant flock of starlings evading a predatory hawk. From the outside, the cloud of birds seems to move in obedience to one mind. In fact, Surowiecki writes, each starling is acting on its own, following four simple rules: "1) stay as close to the middle as possible; 2) stay 2 to 3 body lengths away from your neighbor; 3) do not bump into any other starling...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Books: Triumph of the Masses | 5/24/2004 | See Source »

Designed by Friedrich St. Florian, an architect based in Providence, R.I., the 712-acre memorial created controversy early on because of its proposed location. So as not to rupture the sight line between the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument, or to intrude upon the space where the 1963 civil rights march was held, it was originally planned for a site off the central axis. But eventually it was shifted there. By way of compromise, the memorial's central feature is now a stone plaza sunk 6 ft. below ground level. Even that doesn't do much to minimize...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Design: A Monument to Blah | 5/3/2004 | See Source »

Huntington initially garnered national attention in 1957, when his first book, The Soldier and the State, was branded by reviewers as a fascist diatribe. “The leading professor in the Harvard government department at the time, Carl Friedrich, was a refugee from the Nazis. And he very mistakenly thought I was making an argument for authoritarianism, which wasn’t true at all,” Huntington says...

Author: By Daniel J. Hemel, CRIMSON STAFF WRITER | Title: Critics Claim Huntington Is Xenophobic | 3/16/2004 | See Source »

...Friedrich quashed Huntington’s prospects at tenure, prompting Huntington to return to New York City, where he was born in 1927, and teach at Columbia University...

Author: By Daniel J. Hemel, CRIMSON STAFF WRITER | Title: Critics Claim Huntington Is Xenophobic | 3/16/2004 | See Source »

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