Word: furniss
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...many brokers and investors, it is all getting rather scary. How long, they ask, can the market keep going up and up in a straight line? After all, as one of the oldest of all Wall Street cliches puts it, "Trees don't grow to the sky." Peter Furniss, a managing director at the brokerage firm of Smith Barney, Harris Upham, chooses a different metaphor. Says he: "It's like a college frat party. The music is loud, and everybody is having a wild time. But sooner or later, the cops are coming to bust up the party...
Consequently, even those troubled by vague worries that the market cannot go straight up forever generally think that the rise can and will be prolonged for a while yet. Furniss says that before the cops break up the party, "I would not be surprised if we reached 2800 ((on the Dow)) within a week and 3000 next month." Many others believe the surge could last another year or even longer. Some reasons...
Will the 1985 rally continue? As always, Wall Street opinion is divided. Says Peter Furniss, a senior vice president at Shearson Lehman Bros.: "This is like a frat party. We're having fun now, but soon somebody is going to call the cops, and the party will be over." Furniss predicts that the Dow may retreat to 1245 before making another bullish move. Richard McCabe, market- analysis manager for Merrill Lynch, disagrees, forecasting that the Dow will hit 1300 this month. McCabe believes that several stock groups are still bargains. Among them: companies in the paper, chemical and aluminum industries...
...pulled $84 billion out of stocks last year, seems to be a key reason for the market's strength. "You can't get 150 million-volume trading days without the participation of the individual investor," notes Monte Gordon, research director for the Dreyfus Group of mutual funds. Concurs Furniss: "Individuals had been poised on the sidelines, waiting for a signal to jump back in. Now they expect something to happen...
...Bowl indicator. According to popular lore, the Dow Jones industrial average rises in years in which a team from the original National Football League wins the Super Bowl and declines when a member of the old American Football League is victorious. "Its reliability is uncanny," says Shearson Lehman's Furniss. That rule of thumb has been right in 16 of the past 18 years. So when the San Francisco 49ers of the original N.F.L. trounced the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XIX on Jan. 20, Wall Street knew it had something to cheer about...