Word: gainsbrugh
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...Martin Gainsbrugh, chief economist of the Conference Board, a nonprofit business research organization, has compiled figures to prove that so far the current upturn has been notably weak. Gainsbrugh calculates that the 1970 "recession"-which was officially given that name by the National Bureau of Economic Research two weeks ago-hit bottom in November. Thus, by the end of April, the present recovery was five months old. At that stage in the four previous postwar recoveries, industrial production showed increases ranging from 6.4% to 10.2% above recession lows, while real gross national product went up anywhere from...
Economist Martin Gainsbrugh of the National Industrial Conference Board believes that inflation is harder to contain now than in the 1950s, partly because service industries and government at all levels employ a much larger share of the nation's work force. That makes it far more difficult for the economy to offset the impact of rising wages by achieving increases in workers' productivity. The output per man-hour of a teacher, fireman or nurse can scarcely be measured, much less increased. The wholesale price index, which does not include the cost of services, has gone up more slowly than...
...monetary policies to depress the economy. But the toll would be politically intolerable and socially explosive. The Administration, for example, has been counting on rising unemployment to moderate union wage demands, but in the present environment that moderation might well require unemployment considerably higher than the current 4.8%. Economist Gainsbrugh asks worriedly: "How acceptable would such a high body count be, particularly to the militant minorities...
Eventually, the cost of money will force managers of large corporations to reconsider some marginal capital-expansion projects. After a survey of 1,000 companies, Martin Gainsbrugh, chief economist of the National Industrial Conference Board, reports some retrenchment in plans to spend on new plant and machinery. Between the last quarter of 1968 and the first quarter of this year, planned spending dipped by 2½ % and in some industries by as much as 10%. Gainsbrugh believes that the long boom in capital spending will level off through the year, as businessmen face up to a squeeze on profits...
...Gainsbrugh warns, however, that these prospects for prosperity will prove hollow if inflation continues at its current rate of more than 4%. If it does, he says, it "could foreshadow a boom followed by a severe deflation later in the 1970s." Convinced that sensible Government policy will avoid such a crisis, he estimates that inflation will average 2% during the decade. Tending to reinforce his assumption, such economic barometers as industrial production and personal income have begun to level out under the growing pressure of high taxes, tight money and a budget surplus...