Word: galluped
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Even if the polls are not entirely accurate, Johnson will probably command more than the 57 per cent of the vote that Dwight Eisenhower won in 1956. Dr. Gallup, for one, tells us to expect a 64-36 Johnson victory, noting that this is the same margin which prevailed following the Democratic convention. But it doesn't take a public opinion researcher to tell us that nothing has happened in the Presidential race; both parties seem to be hanging on, hoping for the end. In fact, the charge that the campaign has swallowed up any interest...
...people, Harris said, he can determine how the country feels about an issue at the time the poll is taken. In a situation where feelings change rapidly, however, polls cannot be taken close enough to the election to reflect the full impact of the changes. Harris and Dr. Gallup were able to predict in New Hampshire that a trend was running towards Lodge, but they underestimated it. The same was true of the Goldwater trend in California...
Whether or not one agrees with the Goldwater theory (and the results of the New Hampshire and Oregon primaries seem to belie it), it is clear that if Goldwater is correct, the polls will fail to reflect this. Goldwater is relying on the support of habitual non-voters; Dr. Gallup discounts the votes of anyone who has not voted in any of the last three elections, and Mr. Harris must have some similar provision. In other words, it is a necessary corollary to the Goldwater thesis that polls will fail to predict accurately the result of a Presidential election...
...apathy, they finally took the lead in all three major polls early this month. The usual Labour surge at the beginning of the campaign period came a week late, but it did come; Labour recovered in all the surveys and now has a six point edge in the Gallup poll. More decisively, Labour has consistently polled higher percentages in the marginal constituencies than in the nation as a whole...
...equally obvious, though, that most Americans revere the Court, however little they understand it. Unlike 1937, the Court is now riding a national tide rather than trying to turn it. A recent Gallup poll shows a 3-to-2 national majority supporting reapportionment. Once again Dissenter Black has triumphed, for it was he who argued against Frankfurter back in 1946, when the Court rejected a reapportionment case as too "political...