Word: galluped
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...polls did not interpret the "undecided" vote correctly. Gallup had assumed the undecided would divide about equally between the two candidates; actually, 74% voted for Truman...
...correct such errors, Gallup intends this year to poll right up to the eve of election. He is also giving more attention to working out a method of determining how the undecided vote is likely to go. The undecided are being divided into groups on the basis of their attitude on key issues, how they have voted in the past, etc. On the eve of election, Gallup will allocate them to the two parties in accordance with the percentages indicated by these breakdowns...
...Gallup is also increasing the polling among the lower income groups by assigning districts to polltakers. In 1948, when polltakers could pick their own areas, they often passed up slum districts. To this Gallup has added greater use of a check which market researchers have found accurate: "pinpoint sampling," in which every third house is visited in 150 U.S. electoral precincts picked at random. This is the method Gallup will use for his last pre-election poll, taken the Saturday before Election...
...methods have worked well. In1950's off-year election, Gallup was able to narrow his margin of error (average: 3.4%) down to less than 1%: the last poll indicated 51% for the Democrats, and they got 50.3%. In this year's New Hampshire primary, the Crossley poll, using similar techniques, gave Eisenhower a 51.7% majority...
...pollsters are well aware of possible error in their figures, but feel they have the alarm signals set. If they fail, it is still true, as Gallup says, that "nobody has yet devised a better...