Word: garteners
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...handbasket: the Great Depression of the 1930s. In truth, we're a long way from breadlines, and policymakers understand the forces that move the economy today much better than they did then. But one lesson of the 1930s is worth remembering. In an interconnected world, points out Jeffrey Garten, dean of the Yale school of management, a small spark can start a huge conflagration. In 1930 it looked as if the consequences of the 1929 market crash might be contained; it was the collapse in 1931 of the Austrian bank Creditanstalt that turned a market correction into a worldwide slump...
...seems absurd that the fate of nations could hang on the sale of a Pentium III chip. "It's an illusion that we can draw a bright line in the sand," says Jeffrey Garten, a Commerce official during Clinton's first term and now dean of Yale's School of Management. "So it's healthy that we have a national debate over what we transfer and what we hold back." Engagement with China rests on scores of such decisions, and virtually no one, not even in the white heat of the Cox report, is seriously calling for Washington to disengage...
...takeover of Hong Kong could still pose a problem. Courtis optimistically declared that even though Hong Kong's physical and business environment will become more polluted and "the people will be less free," nonetheless, "the goose will get used to a different diet and still lay golden eggs." Garten was not so sure: "The viability of Hong Kong as a financial center depends on an elusive sense of international confidence that could be lost. This relationship between Hong Kong and China will be a roller coaster...
...Mexico, "the political situation is very delicate and the whole edifice is fragile," said Rubio, while Brazil's fortunes hinge on a proposed constitutional amendment to allow President Fernando Henrique Cardoso to run for a second consecutive term. Argentina faces a different kind of structural problem, Garten said: "They have a high-wage economy and 18% unemployment. The country is importing massive amounts of equipment to substitute for labor, but there's no scenario to retrain the workers. That's going to create real political tensions...
...danger lurking beneath the surface for most Latin countries is their dependence on "hot" foreign money, unlike Asia, where outsiders are building factories and growth is financed out of high domestic savings. The problem: "An increase in U.S. interest rates would suck money right out of Latin America," Garten warned, "and create Mexican-style problems for all the major countries...