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...should markets be better forecasters than polls? Economist Friedrich von Hayek argued that markets efficiently gather information held by widely dispersed people, summarizing it in the form of prices. In speculative markets, traders and bettors are rewarded only if they correctly predict future prices. That, Wolfers says, motivates them to get the best information they can, ignoring trivia and trends. "The market seems pretty highly attuned to news that affects the election outcome," Wolfers says. "That's not always the same as what the papers report. The market is unlikely to react to things like party conferences and policy speeches...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: For a Winner, Follow the Money | 8/31/2004 | See Source »

...have decided to extend you the courtesy of a letter explaining myself—although I am confident you will not read it. Likewise, I am resigned to the fact that you will surely ignore the hundreds of thousands of others who gather in the streets of New York next week. Your campaign has already indicated as much publicly. So why protest? And why write...

Author: By Benjamin J. Toff, | Title: Why I'll Be in New York | 8/20/2004 | See Source »

...Gather all eight Ivy coaches in the Yale Golf Course clubhouse and watch them discuss football for the first time since last November...

Author: By Michael R. James, CRIMSON STAFF WRITER | Title: King James Bible: Random Musings From Ivy Media Day | 8/13/2004 | See Source »

...attack. U.S. officials say reports from agents and "code talk" picked up from extremists' e-mail point to a possible al-Qaeda attack before the Nov. 2 election. A counterterrorism official tells TIME that a recent analysis of al-Qaeda's 2001 timeline shows that the hijackers started to gather in the U.S. 20 weeks before Sept. 11 and the entire strike team had infiltrated the country no later than 7 1/2 weeks before, leading some intelligence analysts to conclude that members of the operational cell must already be here. Says a CIA official: "We have some fairly specific information...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Halting the Next 9/11 | 8/2/2004 | See Source »

After the movie, guests gather in the adjacent atrium for hors d’oeuvres and drinks. The bartenders don’t card—lucky me. Peggy “John’s Sister” Kerry hesitantly makes the rounds, looking confused as she speaks with prominent Democratic fundraisers and MoveOn.org execs. Apparently bewildered, Kerry sticks close to her guides, the late Sen. Daniel Moynihan’s daughter Maura Moynihan ’79 and her curly-haired son. (I chat with Maura briefly; she’s attractive, friendly, bordering on perky. It turns...

Author: By Michael M. Grynbaum, | Title: Adventures in Mid- to High Society | 7/30/2004 | See Source »

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