Word: gaza
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...just because the Iranian government's cowboy faction might be strutting its stuff. Bush's failure to patiently broker a real Middle East settlement-mostly because he refused to speak to Yasser Arafat or demand concessions from the Israelis-helped lead to Israel's unilateral withdrawal policy in Gaza. Peace isn't made unilaterally. An unstated part of Israeli policy was that provocations by Hamas and Hizballah would have to be met with real force, lest it seem that Israel was merely retreating from a tough fight. Furthermore, it was the Bush Administration-not the Israelis, not the Palestinian Authority...
...Having created Hizballah in 1982 and maintained close ties with the organization ever since, Iran may also see its interests served by the escalation of violence in Lebanon and Gaza - regardless of whether or not Hizballah actually coordinated its decision with Tehran. Iran's regional influence has grown substantially as a result of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which removed its arch-enemy, Saddam Hussein, and brought to power a Shi'ite coalition government dominated by elements allied with Tehran. Prospects for averting the slide towards civil war in Iraq appear to be grim without active support from Iran, which...
...events in Gaza and Lebanon clearly took the Israeli leadership by surprise, and the first instinct of a government that by Israeli standards has a notable lack of military experience has been to retaliate harshly in order to reestablish Israel's deterrent power. The Palestinians and the Lebanese must be made to pay a heavy price for tolerating the militants in their midst, goes the thinking, and Israel is reportedly considering a ground invasion aimed at dismantling Hizballah's military capability...
...week operation in Gaza has thus far failed to yield either the return of Corporal Shalit or an end to Palestinian rocket fire, and Hamas appears to be more popular than ever. The Israelis insist that they must erase the threat to their citizenry by taking down the leadership of Hamas and Hizballah, and that a failure to do so would simply invite further provocations. But the track record suggests that military means may be unable to accomplish that goal, and the militants know this. They are clearly betting they can withstand the Israeli offensive as the civilian casualty toll...
...domestic political damage to Israel's government may be more enduring. With every escalation of the current crisis, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's plans to make a unilateral withdrawal from parts of the West Bank along the same lines that Israel quit Gaza last year look less realistic. Opinion polls show as much as half the population is now opposed to going ahead with the plan that had been the centerpiece of Olmert's election campaign...