Word: gaza
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...number of Israel's top military commanders are aware of the danger that an offensive in Gaza could plunge the region back into the depths of crisis, quickly erasing whatever gains have been made over the past three weeks. For the same reason, Israel's foreign minister, Shimon Peres, stressed that unlike "Operation Defensive Shield" in the West Bank, any actions in Gaza would be short-lived and focused on identifiable strongholds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Still, that's easier said than done...
...Islamist terror cells operate in the shadows and base themselves in the Strip's crowded urban areas and refugee camps - Gaza City is one of the world's most densely populated cities. Even though Israeli military strategists believe Israel reestablished its deterrent capacity during "Defensive Shield" by breaking the previous taboo on sending troops into Palestinian cities and refugee camps, doing the same in Gaza raises the specter of civilian casualties - and also Israeli losses - far in excess of those seen in Jenin...
...Hamas does maintain a visible infrastructure in Gaza, but that consists almost entirely of the mosques, schools, day-care centers, medical facilities and food-distribution centers of its welfare wing on whom tens of thousands of impoverished Gazans depend. Targeting those could carry a heavy political cost for Israel. Also, the 139-square mile strip abutting Egypt is a hotbed of Palestinian militancy and support for Hamas and other radical groups is higher there than in the West Bank. Reports from the area suggest local militants are preparing to fight hard against any Israeli incursions into Gaza's population centers...
...Another concern among the Israelis and Americans is the effect of such an operation on efforts to reform the Palestinian Authority and consolidate its security structures. Gaza security chief Mohammed Dahlan has assumed a greater role in efforts to restore Palestinian security structures both on his home turf and in the West Bank. The U.S. would like to see Dahlan mount a full-blown crackdown on all Palestinian terrorist groups and unofficial militias, in cooperation with Israeli security and intelligence services. But a new Israeli offensive may preclude that, forcing Dahlan to allow his men to resist...
...week's White House visit, appearing to endorse Sharon's position that peace talks will have to wait until security had been restored and the PA thoroughly reformed. That allows Sharon to defer the uncomfortable question of just how much of Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza he's ultimately willing to relinquish...