Word: gdp
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...gets lost is the fact that there are ways of trying to assess errors in forecasts," says Robert Eisenbeis, a former researcher at the Atlanta Fed who is now chief monetary economist at the money-management firm Cumberland Advisors. "It's possible to think about these forecasts not as 'GDP is going to be 0.6% this year' but as 'GDP is going to be 0.6% plus or minus something.' What's relevant is how big that plus or minus...
...many other economic forecasters got it wrong. Dozens of states have found themselves with budget shortfalls, some quite massive, partly because economists weren't ratcheting down expectations of tax revenue nearly fast enough. In late November, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters indicated GDP would decline at an annual pace of 1.1% for the first three months of 2009. The economy proceeded to shrink at a pace of 5.5%. (See what to expect when the recession ends...
...year, crippled growth in a country for which exports are a critical part of its economic lifeblood. The government responded by announcing a $585 billion spending package, driven by massive infrastructure investments across the country, and, for now anyway, that policy is paying off. China announced today that its GDP in the second quarter grew at 7.9%, just a shade below the 8.1% goal the government set for growth in 2009. "The strong acceleration in underlying economic activity is now unmistakable," says Yu Song, a Goldman Sachs economist based in Hong Kong...
...analysts still skeptical of China's recovery story, major questions hung over the announcement today. One concerns long-standing doubts about the reliability of government economic data - what one U.S. hedge-fund manager calls "the Beijing fudge factor." In the first quarter of this year, Beijing reported 6.1% GDP growth, but electricity consumption overall in the country appeared to decline. How a country the size of China could grow by 6% yet use less electricity was puzzling. And in the first six months of this year, overall rail-freight traffic declined in China. Again, how that squares with accelerating growth...
...Xinjiang, which makes up one-sixth of China's landmass but is home to less than 2% of its population, is an area of vast oil, mineral and agricultural wealth. Under a decade-old "develop the West" policy, the GDP of the region climbed from $20 billion in 2000 to $44.5 billion in 2006. Many Uighurs feel, however, that the boom has benefited majority Han Chinese, while they've been left out. "If you're Han, there are opportunities. But if you're from my group, there's nothing you can do," says a Uighur man in Urumqi who declined...