Word: gdp
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...worst recession since the end of World War II. The good news is that there is a slowing in the rate of deterioration in the global economy. The tougher news is that this is hardly surprising. In the aftermath of unprecedented annualized plunges in real global GDP on the order of 6% to 7% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the pace of deterioration almost had to moderate...
...were only that easy. Contrary to the lore of the "Asia century," the region continues to suffer from a lack of internal support from its 3.5 billion consumers. The private-consumption share of developing Asia's overall GDP fell to a record low of 47% in 2008 - down from 55% as recently as 2001. In other words, Asia remains an export machine. Developing Asia's export share rose from 36% of pan-regional GDP during the financial crisis of 1997-98 to a record 47% in 2007. And recent research by the International Monetary Fund shows that Asian exports continue...
...Asian financial crisis, the region's financial institutions went into the current Great Recession with robust balance sheets that they can now leverage up by acquiring the assets that Western banks are shedding. China's banks are in a particularly sweet spot. Grown fat on years of sizzling GDP growth, Bank of China (2008 profit: $9.7 billion) has a leverage ratio of only...
...Geithner repeats constantly, both in public and in private, that the Obama Administration is committed to returning to fiscal responsibility - pushing deficits down to 3% of GDP - in the "medium term." On his first visit to Beijing, the Treasury Secretary could claim to his Chinese hosts that the necessary precondition for that return to fiscal sanity - a little bit of economic growth - might be on the horizon. Considering where things were the last time he met China's Premier - in October of last year, when the global economy was, as Geithner says now, "falling off a cliff" - that...
...current downturn. "Public spending is already subject to considerable siphoning off and, perhaps even more critically, waste," says Andrew Wedeman, a political scientist and Chinese-corruption expert at the University of Nebraska. During the boom years, such waste mattered less because growth was so robust. But if China's GDP expands only 6% to 8% this year, as some predict, corruption could dampen recovery. "What really matters is not if funds will be siphoned off or how much will be siphoned off," Wedeman says, "but rather whether the siphoning will have a clear and negative impact on the central government...