Word: gdp
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...about China's efforts to recover from the global financial crisis can cause whiplash. A government research center announces that thirty million migrant workers may be unemployed - 50% higher than the previous estimates - but Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao says the economy is doing "better than expected." Exports plummet and GDP growth grinds to a 10-year low, but fixed-asset investments and Shanghai stocks are headed up. It often looks like there are two Chinese economies...
...There have been a number of estimates as to the financial effects of a pandemic. Some range as high as a 5% drop in global GDP. The calculations that would go into an exercise to come up with a reasonable guess would require more work than the entire length of the recession would allow. But, a pandemic is a long shot for several reasons. The most obvious reason is that healthcare and disease monitoring are much more sophisticated now than they were just six years ago at the beginning of the SARS epidemic, which turned out fortunately...
...first things that accompany news of dangerous flu viruses is an economic evaluation of the effects of a pandemic. In a recent article, Reuters pointed out in 2008 that the IMF said a flu pandemic could cost $3 trillion and cause a 5% drop in global GDP. In other words, it would almost certainly turn the current deep recession into a worldwide depression. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...
...unfortunately are killed by it," says Justin Urquhart Stewart, investment director at Seven Investment Management in London, but by "the impact of the potential [population] that could be effected. Once it starts to gather momentum, it takes very little to start knocking serious percentage points off global trade and GDP." Right now, that's a momentum we could all do without...
...ends up being relatively mild - but what Osterholm calls "collateral damage" if governments respond to the emergency by instituting border controls and disrupting world trade. Not only would the global recession worsen - a 2008 World Bank report estimated that a severe pandemic could reduce the world's GDP by 4.8% - but we depend on international trade now for countless necessities, from generic medicines to surgical gloves. The just-in-time production systems embraced by companies like Wal-Mart - where inventories are kept as low as possible to cut waste and boost profit - mean that we don't have stockpiles...