Word: gdp
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...time of nearly universal dismay over the business outlook, there are few experts anywhere who can out-gloom Jim Walker, an economist at an independent Hong Kong research firm called Asianomics. In his thick Scottish accent, Walker predicts the worst global recession since the Great Depression. GDP in the U.S., he says, could contract as much as 5% in 2009, and Europe by 2%. He is no more bullish about the economies in his area of specialty: Asia, a region where most of his colleagues foresee more buoyancy. China won't see GDP rise more than...
...Monetary Fund (IMF) in late January revised its forecasts for 2009 sharply downward, predicting the slowest global growth rate since World War II, at only 0.5%. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said he expects "the global economy to come to a virtual halt." Even China would record only 6.75% GDP growth in 2009, according...
...week estimated that 20 million migrant laborers have lost their jobs. But just as important to Chinese growth is private investment. Corporate profitability in China was deteriorating even before the worst of the global financial crisis hit, and that will soften investment, which makes up more than 40% of GDP. In the first 11 months of 2008, profits at 350,000 enterprises in China grew a mere 4.9%, down from 37% in the same period in 2007. "We're already seeing a huge swing in the fortunes of Chinese companies," Walker says. "When people see a very different investment environment...
...growth target for 2009. Walker, however, is much more skeptical about the government's ability to rescue the economy. "What the government has to contend with is a slowdown in every other sector of the economy," he says. Since the Chinese government accounts for only some 20% of GDP, "how it will make up for a slowdown in the other 80% is beyond...
...evaporated. A major downturn in China "takes the floor away" from growth in the rest of Asia, he says, leaving the region more exposed to the woes of the U.S. and Europe. Most vulnerable are Asia's smaller, trade-dependent economies. He forecasts Taiwan and Singapore could see GDP sink by 5% to 10% in 2009, while Korea's economy could contract by as much as 5%. "We're still in the very early stages of the downturn in Asia," Walker warns...