Word: gdp
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...knows how long the slump will last or how it will play out. There are plenty of analogies to describe the possible shape of the U.S. downturn if you plotted GDP growth on a graph: V (short and shallow); W (double dip with a positive blip in the middle as a result of fiscal stimulus programs); L (a protracted, Japan-like stagnation); saucer (stagnation with a very weak recovery). A V-shaped recession now seems highly unlikely. The U.S. housing sector continues to deteriorate, eroding consumer confidence and wealth. Private investment is in free fall, and personal consumption (which accounts...
...Dubai's biggest risk is its reliance on debt to drive its breathtaking building boom. Moody's has estimated that Dubai's government and public-sector company debt was at least $47 billion, a staggering 103% of the emirate's 2006 GDP. The rating agency said it expected debt to outpace GDP for an additional five years, making Dubai very exposed to financial and geopolitical risks...
...problem, says S&P's chief economist David Wyss, who looks at GDP and employment and other broad indicators of the economy, is that S&P earnings could end up about 50% lower, or $63 per share. Stocks analyst are typically more optimistic than economists, but only by a few bucks, says Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst at S&P. "Traditionally, when you get these big discrepancies, it is the economists who end up being a lot closer to reality," says Silverblatt...
...must be suffering from serious insomnia. When that meeting in Washington took place, China's economy was still expanding at a double-digit rate, creating enough jobs every year that many of the 20 million new job seekers who entered the market found some sort of gainful employment. Now GDP growth has dipped to around 9% and is expected to decline further as the worldwide financial crisis transmogrifies into a global recession. Already, scores of Chinese factories producing consumer goods like toys and plastics goods have shuttered in the southern industrial powerhouse of Guangdong, and thousands of unemployed workers have...
...manufacturing higher value-added products and jobs in the service industry. "In a way, the crisis could work out well for China. It has the potential to help in rebalancing the economy away from production" to the creation of more jobs in the service sector, says Dollar. If GDP growth slows further to 8%, the government still can hit its job creation targets, but the speed with which the adjustment happens will be critical, he says. "We're going to learn just how well the capital and labor markets work in China. The concern is if the adjustment is very...