Word: gemayels
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...question now is whether the Phalangists will allow Gemayel to make concessions or whether they will try to fight it out in West Beirut. If Gemayel cannot form a new Cabinet acceptable both to his Christian supporters and to the Muslim militias that defeated his army last week, he will have virtually no chance of staying in power. One probable scenario would be for Gemayel to appoint a Cabinet of military officers, as President Bishara Khoury did in 1952, then announce that he was resigning for the good of the country. An interim government might be headed by Army Commander...
...Gemayel does survive, it will only be with Syrian support. Besides abandoning the May 17 accord, he could be forced to appoint as Prime Minister a Syrian sympathizer like former Prime Minister Rashid Karami. Gemayel would have to loosen his ties with Israel and reduce Lebanon's dependence on Washington. Whatever happens, Syria is virtually certain to have additional leverage over Lebanon...
...British have long been skeptical of the entire U.S. peace-keeping strategy in Lebanon, especially Washington's unblinking support for Lebanese President Amin Gemayel and its use of force against Syrian positions. Britain, always a reluctant member of the MNF, now regards an accommodation between President Reagan and Syrian President Hafez Assad as essential to any Lebanese solution. London has concluded that Gemayel must step down and that the May 17 accord between his government and Israel, calling for the mutual withdrawal of Syrian and Israeli forces from Lebanon, is effectively meaningless...
Privately, British officials were blunt in observing that U.S. prestige suffered badly as a result of the collapse of Gemayel's government and the announcement of the Marine redeployment. Said a London diplomat: "Now Soviet propaganda can have a field day with what is truthfully a humiliating defeat for American foreign policy." The French were even more critical, although their 1,250-member MNF detachment will remain in Beirut while President Francois Mitterrand seeks a U.N. replacement. Said a senior French spokesman: "We will either revive the idea of a U.N. force [in Beirut], or we will conclude that...
...bombardment came from Israel. "The shelling is very important," said an Israeli spokesman close to Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir. "They should have done it two weeks or ten days ago. It is the only language the Syrians understand." With much to lose from the fall of the Gemayel government, Israel was quick to argue that any perception of U.S. withdrawal from Lebanon would, in the words of one official, "have catastrophic consequences for the U.S. position in the Middle East...