Word: georgia
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Through it all, Russia bided its time - until Georgia offered up a golden opportunity last Friday. By invading its neighbor, Russia has crossed the Rubicon, demonstrating that the Caucasus sit squarely and solely in Russia's sphere of influence. Moscow's long-term objectives in Georgia no doubt are to install a friendly government in Tbilisi (it has tried more than once to do that since Georgian independence), keep Georgia out of NATO, stop the flow of arms into Chechnya and take control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the only important export route from the Caspian that does...
...they rarely come true. Still, it bears watching. There are half a dozen pending arms deals between Russia and Iran on the table, including the Russian S-300, an air-defense system that would make an aerial attack on Iran very costly. If Russia, emboldened by a victory in Georgia, were to go ahead with the deal now, it would be a sign that imperial Russia is truly back on the move...
...intervening years was, What kind of Russia will that be? And though that's been, in the eyes of many, increasingly obvious, we now have the definitive answer: authoritarian at home, brooking no consequential political opposition, and increasingly aggressive abroad. The Russian war against the small, Caucasus state of Georgia had been frozen in time for the past 16 years (Russian troops last fought in Tbilisi, Georgia's capital, in 1992) until Putin began it in earnest again this past weekend, sending in air strikes far beyond the disputed territory of South Ossetia...
...could to tip the presidential election to its approved candidate - including, many believe, poisoning with dioxin the eventual winner, Viktor Yushchenko. Just over a week ago, traveling in Central Asia for a future TIME story, I asked a senior Western official about the likelihood that the tense Russia-Georgia standoff over South Ossetia could escalate. The source acknowledged that the presence of "hotheads" on both sides - a clear reference to Putin and Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili, who, it's true, has not played Tbilisi's hand well. Still, the official said he thought the West was doing a reasonable...
Russia may have called an end to its military operations in Georgia, but it has already had its way with its uppity little neighbor. The country is traumatized. The people of the capital, Tbilisi, are unlikely to forget the last 24 hours anytime soon. Late last night, even President Mikhail Saakashvili's office expected an attack on the city by morning. Rumors swirled that tanks were on the edge of town and that the capital would be shelled. Saakashvili appeared on the verge of tears in a national address, and later, in the middle of the night...