Word: georgias
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Russia has a European strategy, but Europe does not have one for Russia - unless you want to call "Let's not rile the Bear" a strategy. Nor is "Let's annoy him a little bit" the epitome of statecraft. The latest example is Georgia. In the wake of the Russian invasion this summer, the European Union froze talks about a new economic partnership. But on Nov. 14, that killer sanction was lifted after just 10 weeks when the E.U. and Russia embraced at a summit in Nice...
...payoffs haven't been bad. During the August crisis in the Caucasus, Chancellor Angela Merkel sounded as if she might welcome Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO soon. No more; it is back to a pretty clear nein for a very long time. To Moscow, Berlin now offers "as close and reliable a partnership as possible...
...that turns Germany and others against the U.S. and the East Europeans. Remember that the rule is "Don't rile the Bear," and so whenever the Bear growls, he is sure to find a receptive audience west of Warsaw and Prague. You would have thought Russia's march through Georgia and its quasi-annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would have instilled a healthy sense of ursophobia in Berlin and points west. You might also think that Russian pressure tactics against the newer members of the E.U. and NATO would sharpen doubts about Moscow's pledges...
...fact, the short freeze in the aftermath of Georgia was the exception that proves the rule - which reads: "When in doubt, seek to please." Call it instinct, call it reflex - the fact is that Europe (minus those Easterners who remember the terrible old days under the Soviet knout) will seek to avoid confrontation. The Russians know it, and the Obama Administration will learn this soon enough...
...fabulous riches in the ground, Russia remains a kind of Third World country, an extraction economy whose welfare and clout fluctuate with the price of oil. Today, oil fetches less than one-half of what it did when Russia, flush with cash and cockiness, invaded Georgia. Its stock market has crashed more heavily than any other - by more than...