Word: giersch
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Evidence is building that the world economy is going through more than a temporary, cyclical downturn. Says Herbert Giersch, director of West Germany's Institute for World Economics in Kiel: "The stagnation of the European economy will not be solved before the end of the decade." Chase Econometrics, a U.S. consulting firm, has projected that between now and 1991, annual growth in most industrial countries will average only 2% to 3%. Worse, Chase predicts that unemployment in the U.S. and Europe will hover around 8% to 9% over the next decade...
WEST GERMANY. The economy of Western Europe's most important industrial power will decline 1% this year, according to Herbert Giersch, director of the University of Kiel's Institute for World Economics. He believes that the upswing will finally come in 1983, when growth will reach 1.5%. Unemployment is expected to rise to 7.5% of the work force this year. Inflation, which was 6.3% last year, will drop...
...Giersch blames excessively high wages in West Germany and most of the rest of the European Community for the persistence of the recession. Readjusting the price of labor is a painful process that he expects will take the rest of this decade. Said Giersch: "We hope that the political consensus will be strong enough to support this development...
They unanimously rejected Reagan's policy of trade sanctions against the Soviet Union that are aimed at halting or delaying construction of a pipeline that will deliver natural gas from Siberia to Western Europe. Said Giersch: "Contracts must be fulfilled. I dislike any politicization of commerce, because once you start, you will end up with a kind of trade war for one cause or another. You also unleash protectionist pressures inside your own country...
...socialist program. The harsh reality of trying to run a fragile economy will be very sobering. Said Tumlir: "We are gradually emerging from a silly political season to some better understanding of the political conditions necessary for economic prosperity. Recovery always begins with a hangover." Even Italian Communists, said Giersch, are coming to the conclusion that it is "medium-size private enterprise that is really doing the hard work and innovation, and providing the money for government expenditures...