Word: globalization
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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Those bullish on global economic recovery have their data points: the steady upward climb of world stock markets, three straight months of Chinese manufacturing expansion, the weak dollar. But there are still plenty of skeptics of a rapid and robust turnaround, with their own set of numbers to cite: continued bleeding of private-sector jobs in the U.S. and Europe, more record lows in new home construction, and, er, the weak dollar. (Watch TIME's video of Peter Schiff trash-talking the markets...
Never before have so many experts and ordinary folk been so busy trying to gauge the timing and strength of the eventual worldwide economic rebound. One of the best indicators is found in the shipping industry. It's global in scope and ever more indispensable in an economy so reliant on international commerce. Not surprisingly, perhaps, there is new evidence out on the open seas that both the bears and bulls can flag to help make their respective cases. (See TIME 100 panelists discuss what's next for capitalism...
Still, there is inevitably a global dimension to tracking bulk rates. "It's the price for moving raw materials, which sit at the beginning of the production chain," Penn explains. "We can say that the complete lockup of world trade we saw at the end of last year has eased considerably." Penn concludes that his index "is useful to look at, but it's not the holy grail...
...coming months and years. "There are new and larger ships on order," notes the source. "I fear that overall rates will not be as responsive to the recovery as a whole." In other words, just as skyrocketing prices in raw-material transport don't guarantee a robust global recovery, nor would a sluggish rebound in shipping profits preclude a bullish outlook for the overall economy...
Netbooks may be puny, but they're getting bigger and more feature-packed - and they're more popular than ever. Last year, global netbook sales exceeded those of the iPhone; despite the recession, demand remains strong. Brian Chen, PC analyst for market research firm Display Search, predicts second quarter sales will exceed 9 million units, a 50% increase over the first quarter. (Global computer sales fell 7% in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2008.) "We've already increased our forecast [for netbook sales] to 30 million this year and they'll probably count...