Word: globalization
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Where is the global economy heading from here? My concern right now is that this U-shaped recession we are in could turn into something much uglier, meaning a Japanese-style L-shaped recession. We're in the worst global synchronized recession in the last 60 years. Unless we take the right policy actions, we'll end up in a near depression. I did not want to use that term six months ago. At that time, I said the chances of a near depression were only 10%. But today those chances are 33% or so. (Read "25 People to Blame...
...What's the best-case scenario? If you do everything right, you avoid an L, and that's really good news. But you still have a situation in which global growth this year is negative. GDP growth in advanced economies is going to be negative through the fourth quarter of this year, and next year, growth will be anemic - probably 1% or lower. Job creation is going to be negative. In the best of circumstances, we have a two- to three-year recession in advanced economies...
...From a global perspective, the trading in bonds for developing countries that might default on their debt, nations such as Ireland and Ukraine, need to stop changing hands at distressed levels. If the bets on these nations being able to shoulder that own national financial obligations improve, it is a sign that global credit is becoming available, at least at the sovereign level, and that the IMF has been able to get commitments from the "richer" nations to provide credit to those that are in trouble...
...avoid a double-digit drop in GDP If the U.S. skids at that rate, the other large economies in the world, all of which depend on the American consumer to some great degree, will have the hulls of their exports breached below the water line. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...
Relative calm returned to global bourses Tuesday following Monday's battering. Asian markets closed slightly down, while European indices reflected modest opening gains. But many observers see Tuesday's lull as little more than a break between rounds in a particularly brutal boxing match. "The markets certainly got a breather today," says Kirby Daley, senior strategist at financial services firm Newedge Group in Hong Kong, of Tuesday's respite. "(But) I believe it will be short-lived...