Word: glutting
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Some cities are virtual disaster areas. San Bernardino, glut capital of America, has a commercial vacancy rate of 33%. Next come New Haven (30%) and Springfield, Mass., and New Orleans (both 28%). Even in posh Beverly Hills, the rate is so high (25%) that city officials journeyed to the Orient in January to try to woo prospective tenants. Bucking the trend are a few lucky cities, most of them sleepy state capitals that hotshot dealmakers bypassed in the '80s. Among them: Lansing, Mich. (10%), Albany (9.6%), Raleigh, N.C. (9.4%) and Sacramento...
...office glut is in some ways just another broken leg of the savings and loan crisis. Many thrifts went bust by tossing money into high-rises that never should have been built in the first place. As a result, few analysts expect a rebound soon. In the suburbs of Chicago, a virtual shutdown of new construction since 1989 has failed to budge the vacancy rate, now between 15% and 20%. "When will lenders lend again?" wonders Hugh Kelly, an economist and real estate consultant. "For some major markets, vacancy rates will have to fall well below 10% before the money...
Many economists note that a decrease in the price of oil, combined with increased consumer confidence at having won the war, would go a long way towards counteracting the recession. Right now there's a worldwide oil glut (even with Iraq and Kuwait exporting nothing), and with prospects for war in the Gulf interrupting supply getting less every day, some experts predict that oil prices may drop to as low as $10 to $12 a barrel. And while predictions vary, changes in the world economy have weakened OPEC and made it more difficult for the cartel to jack up prices...
...ends. Other countries have more than made up for Iraq's and Kuwait's lost production, and the U.S. is getting by on less imported oil, thanks in part to a warm winter and reduced demand driven by the recession. When Iraq and Kuwait start pumping again, the sudden glut could force prices down temporarily to $15 per bbl. or less. That would wash away the industry's profit gains of last quarter and further lower its subpar returns. Warns Unocal chairman Richard Stegemeier: "Instability is coming, and the industry doesn't do well in turbulent times...
...think just the glut of sequels. There was one specific piece of news...that there'd been an auction conducted by the Margaret Mitchell estate, to auction off the rights to let some publisher do a sequel to Gone With the Wind [for $4.9 million]...And it did occur to us that if we were to do twenty sequels in one book, we could write a proposal suggesting that they might be worth a hundred million dollars. And, uh, they weren't quite, but it was actually a way of making a lot of parodies we wanted to do anyway...