Word: golan
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...violence in Lebanon, harden the Israeli electorate against a peace treaty with Syria and make it increasingly difficult for Barak to sell a future peace to his own people. Syria's reckless statements that offend the Israeli electorate's most basic sensibilities reduce Assad's chances of regaining the Golan Heights...
...would Assad deliberately endanger his opportunity to reclaim the Golan Heights? Some try to explain away Assad's behavior on the grounds that he is an aging autocrat who does not comprehend Barak's political needs as a democratic leader. Assad should be granted more credit. For the past thirty years, the shrewd Syrian leader has defined himself as the Middle East's cold calculator par excellence, and there is no exception here. Assad is well aware of the fact that his actions hinder Barak's ability to muster Israeli public support in a future referendum. The Sphinx of Damascus...
...more Syrian provocations erode Barak's political capital with Israelis, the more pliable Barak's negotiating position seems to become. To hasten an agreement, in recent weeks Barak has made subtle but significant concessions. He hinted at acquiescing to Syria's incessant demand that Israel withdraw from the Golan Heights down to the June 4, 1967 borders by asserting that previous Israeli prime ministers have conceded the same. Now Barak ponders dropping the demand for a continued Israeli presence on the Mount Hermon early warning station, a flashpoint issue with the Syrians. Mount Hermon--the eyes and ears of Israeli...
...peril. Conflict with Israel has propped up Assad's authoritarian rule; peace will undermine a pillar of the regime's legitimacy. Worse yet for the Assad regime, peace on the Israeli front and the security arrangements that come with it will invariably mean redeploying the Syrian army from the Golan Heights closer to Damascus. Coups occur when troops mill around the capital, not when they are stationed far off on the Golan. No one knows this brutal fact better than Assad, who himself seized power by coup d'etat in 1970 as an air force general. What a glorious moment...
...Israeli and Syrian governments eventually reach an agreement, it would be folly for the Israeli public to scuttle it. Ultimately, for Israel the strongest defense against Syria is not the strategic buffer of the Golan Heights, but the destabilizing influence peace will have on Assad's authoritarian rule. The current regime in Damascus is a major bottleneck to peace; it occupies Lebanon with 30,000 troops, allows the radical Iranian-inspired Hezbollah to operate against Israel, and remains on the State Department's list of terrorist-sponsoring states. A Syrian-Israeli agreement under these circumstances will be more like...