Word: goldman
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...could replace Pandit? Robert Rubin, the former Treasury Secretary and head of Goldman Sachs, could be one choice. He is currently a director and senior council at the firm. But Rubin has been at Citigroup for a number of years, and it's not clear he has been helpful so far in stopping the losses. What's more, with a Democrat headed back to the White House his eye may be on Pennsylvania Ave. and not Park Ave., where Citi's executive offices are located...
...haven't been through anything this bad in a while. The last time the economy shrank faster than 3% was in the first quarter of 1982, when GDP dropped at a 6.4% annual rate. It hasn't exceeded Goldman's worst-case forecast of -7.8% since the first quarter of 1958, when...
Just how far and how fast will the economy drop this quarter? There's lately been a race to the bottom among forecasters, with the economists at Goldman Sachs leading the way. Early in the week, they put out a report saying that -3.5% annualized GDP growth was their baseline forecast for the quarter, but they also went so far as to outline a "just awful" scenario of -6.0% and a "worst case" of -7.8%. Today they updated their baseline forecast...
...That puts Goldman well ahead, for the moment at least, of even Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor known as Dr. Doom - whose current forecast is about -4%. Lots of Wall Street economists less renowned for their gloominess have by now moved past the -3% mark. In fact, one explanation for the stock market's horrible week could be that the realization of just how bad the quarter will be is finally sinking in among investors. (See the Top 10 Dow Jones drops...
...government has done what it can to try to boost growth. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has sliced its benchmark interest rate to 1.5%, from 6% a year ago. But economists still expect next year to be worse. Goldman Sachs predicts GDP will grow only 2.2% in 2009. In the meantime, Hong Kong's glum populous can at least take comfort in the efforts of one of the city's more esoteric groups. In mid-November, several members collected in Causeway Bay, a popular shopping and restaurant district, to offer people "free" hugs. More such sessions are planned in coming...