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...four other panelists were Ken Goldstein, labor economist for the Conference Board; Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo Banks in Minneapolis, Minn.; William Spriggs, director of the National Urban League's Institute of Opportunity and Equality; and Diane Swonk, chief economist for Bank One in Chicago. They all agreed that job growth will remain anemic this year, with unemployment hovering around 5.6% to 5.8% and falling slowly even as other economic indicators regain strength. Our panel expects payroll growth to rise from 50,000 in July to, optimistically, 125,000 by December--compared with 400,000 a month...
...GOLDSTEIN: You can do all the kinds of things that all these companies are doing, especially at the auto plants, in order to bring down costs. But there is a limit, and that is one reason the GM plant in Linden, New Jersey, will close in 2005, because it can't bring costs down more. They shut down, refitted, brought back half the workers; half were permanently laid off. That refitted plant is now sunsetted for 2005. That is just one plant. But you could go across the board. There clearly is a ceiling on sustained productivity growth...
...GOLDSTEIN: You would think that a public scared by that rise in unemployment, that rise in layoffs in the first quarter, would be in a pretty lousy state of mind. But consumer confidence right now is at a level associated with the middle of an expansion. If you are a baseball fan, it is almost like a team in midseason form on opening day. Even though wage growth has gone down, from 4% to 3.2%, there is still wage growth, and consumers are reasonably content, and so they are still spending...
...GOLDSTEIN: No, there is no bubble...
...several times, has been cooperative and has "never been a suspect." FBI sources say that Hatfill is not a suspect but is merely one of about 15 scientists whose homes were searched in the investigation and that no incriminating evidence was found in the search. --By Andrew Goldstein and Elaine Shannon