Word: gop
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Republicans come back from the dead? In one of two ways. First, they could elect a Republican President who passes popular conservative legislation, as Ronald Reagan did in 1981, thus energizing the GOP faithful and swelling their ranks. Alternatively, they could savage a Democratic President who tries to pass controversial liberal legislation, as Newt Gingrich did to Bill Clinton...
...Gingrich revolution in 1994. He could hike taxes and impose tough new environmental regulations on business. He might preside over a messy withdrawal from Iraq and perhaps see Iran complete development of a nuclear weapon. Any one of these things could pump some life into the near catatonic GOP...
...impossible. The problem is that so is scenario No. 1. There's simply no way a McCain Administration could pass the kind of large-scale conservative initiative--think of Reagan's big tax cut in 1981 or George W. Bush's in 2001--that fires up the GOP base. Facing large and aggressive Democratic majorities in Congress, McCain will have to drink deeply from the well of bipartisan compromise if he wants to get anything done. The alternative will be veto upon veto as he tries to remain ideologically pure...
This kind of coalition government might be good for the country, but it would be disastrous for the GOP. If you think Republicans are demoralized now, wait until McCain stamps the GOP label on higher taxes, tougher regulation and looser rules on immigration. The best precedent is what happened when George H.W. Bush cut a deal with Democrats to raise taxes in 1990. The result was Pat Buchanan's challenge in the 1992 primaries, followed by Ross Perot's in the general election, which together cut the Republican Party's heart out. Already Rush Limbaugh and James Dobson are unhappy...
...American politics is moving left no matter who wins in 2008. The real question is whether Obama becomes the face of that leftward shift--which will remind Republicans why they loathe Democrats--or McCain does, in which case Republicans will increasingly loathe themselves. If McCain loses in 2008, the GOP will eventually come back and win. If he wins, on the other hand, they will lose and lose and lose...