Word: gop
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...impossible. The problem is that so is scenario No. 1. There's simply no way a McCain Administration could pass the kind of large-scale conservative initiative--think of Reagan's big tax cut in 1981 or George W. Bush's in 2001--that fires up the GOP base. Facing large and aggressive Democratic majorities in Congress, McCain will have to drink deeply from the well of bipartisan compromise if he wants to get anything done. The alternative will be veto upon veto as he tries to remain ideologically pure...
This kind of coalition government might be good for the country, but it would be disastrous for the GOP. If you think Republicans are demoralized now, wait until McCain stamps the GOP label on higher taxes, tougher regulation and looser rules on immigration. The best precedent is what happened when George H.W. Bush cut a deal with Democrats to raise taxes in 1990. The result was Pat Buchanan's challenge in the 1992 primaries, followed by Ross Perot's in the general election, which together cut the Republican Party's heart out. Already Rush Limbaugh and James Dobson are unhappy...
...American politics is moving left no matter who wins in 2008. The real question is whether Obama becomes the face of that leftward shift--which will remind Republicans why they loathe Democrats--or McCain does, in which case Republicans will increasingly loathe themselves. If McCain loses in 2008, the GOP will eventually come back and win. If he wins, on the other hand, they will lose and lose and lose...
Obama's convention was largely an internal affair. In Minneapolis, John McCain faces a different dilemma. He must reach outside the Republican base and win over ornery independents as a different kind of Republican. Can the GOP put on a different kind of convention...
...GOP conclaves work like the docile old horse at the petting zoo. The old mare plods along a path it knows well, the kid is happy riding and the show ends right on schedule with no surprises. Sure, the wealthy pro-choice donors who fund the GOP occasionally break into an uneasy sweat when caught in an elevator crush with a few of the party's pro-life, pro-gun fuglemen, but in the end everybody has a good time, and we usually win the election...