Word: gration
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...country born into that environment, which, say, did not have clearly defined borders, or had weak institutions, or was split internally, could spell disaster. "It could recreate the conditions for civil war," says Gressly. Major General Scott Gration, U.S. special envoy to Sudan, describes his task as ensuring "civil divorce, not civil war," and warns, "This place could go down in flames tomorrow. The probability of failure is great." (See a TIME video on the nun offering a refuge from violence in Sudan...
...Secession there is likely to encourage other Sudanese independence fighters, like those in Darfur, or in the east of the country, or in the central-southern states of Southern Kordofan and the Blue Nile. Carter downplays the likelihood of an African Yugoslavia splintering violently under pressure from multiple forces. Gration is less sure. "Disintegration is not a foregone conclusion," he says. "It's my view that we can stop this." So why is South Sudan even trying, when the price of failure could be war and the price of success might be Sudan's disintegration? Why is the world helping...
...least one potential flash point - the south's oil - might be defused. The south's Minister for Presidential Affairs, Luka Biong Deng, told TIME in February his government would continue splitting oil revenue with Khartoum after independence. Given half a century of hostility and intransigence between the two sides, Gration calls such cooperation "phenomenal." (Read: "Sudan Votes May Spark Progress, Peace for Darfur...
...Finally, there are doubts about the world's involvement. Obama's strategy is weakened by dissenters inside his Administration: Gration favors engagement; U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice wants more aggression. Such "mixed support" for engagement inevitably leads to "mixed results," says Carter. His support for the CPA and the general election it envisages is weakened by its transformation into a largely empty exercise by the pullout of most opposition parties, citing abuse, intimidation and violation of electoral law. (On April 6 a spokesman for the State Department hinted the U.S. favored postponing the vote until a more meaningful...
...been harsh. The U.S.-based anti-Khartoum advocacy movement accused the U.S. of endorsing a "sham" election. The ICC's chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, likened the task facing foreign observer teams to "monitoring a Hitler election." Amid such criticism, the U.S. special envoy to Sudan, Major General Scott Gration, headed to Sudan to try to salvage the sinking electoral ship but ended up only enraging al-Bashir's northern opposition by expressing his confidence that the vote would be as "free and fair as possible." John Ashworth, a veteran of 27 years in Sudan now working...