Word: greenspan
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Part of that news remains as bad as ever. Testifying to the Senate Budget Committee last week, Alan Greenspan, the President's chief economist, forecast that the real gross national product would drop at an annual rate of more than 10% in the current quarter. That would be the fifth straight quarterly decline as well as the sharpest contraction for any quarter since World War II. Industrial production in February alone was off 3%, making five successive months of decline. Greenspan, who had previously predicted that unemployment would peak at 8.5%, now said that it would climb higher than...
...arrival depends largely on the speed with which the federal tax cut is enacted -and the size of the reduction. Experts of all political colors are urging quick action by Congress. "The immediate requirement is for a tax cut," says Greenspan. "Let's get on with the tax cut," echoes James Lynn, director of the Office of Management and Budget. Adds Arthur Okun, a leading Democratic economist: "Speed is more important than size." To Murray Weidenbaum, a top Republican economist, the key question is "Do we go from slumpflation to stagflation? It is to avoid the latter possibility that...
Such a massive stimulus could prod the economy back to positive growth as early as June, says Economist Otto Eckstein, the chief of Data Resources, Inc. But Greenspan, Treasury Secretary William Simon and other conservatives fear that overstimulation will aggravate inflation just when it seems to be coming under control. They would much prefer the smaller, $22 billion tax-cut proposal, which they figure would be enough to bring on recovery soon after midyear. One dissenter to the mildly optimistic forecast is Arthur Okun. He reckons that even with a tax cut, recovery could be six months off-and perhaps...
Housing starts in January ran at an annual rate of 987,000 v. 2.5 million in January 1973. Yet some surveys indicate that a modest upturn is likely. The Manhattan consulting firm of Townsend-Greenspan forecasts that the pace of housing starts could hit 1.4 million by year's end. Many of these predictions assume that cuts in federal taxes and a decline in the rate of price increases will put consumers in a more confident home-buying mood. Whether those assumptions are correct could have critical significance. A resurgence in housing has been a leading force in lifting...
What a great commentary on the present state of the U.S. economy-a photograph of Alan Greenspan, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers [Feb. 24], displaying a hole in the sole of his shoe...