Word: greenspan
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...these worrywarts was Alan Greenspan--a man not known for his gloominess (or his intelligibility). In August 2005, when he was still Federal Reserve chairman, Greenspan attributed what he called "lowered risk premiums" to the economic stability of the previous decade and said higher asset prices might reflect "the increased flexibility and resilience of our economy." But he warned that investors could turn cautious at any moment and that "history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums...
...other words, this can't go on forever. Greenspan has since delivered this message repeatedly, but markets paid no attention. Until, suddenly, they did. In a speech and question-and-answer session simulcast from Washington to conferences in Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Singapore on Feb. 26, the former Fed boss repeated his concerns about risk and mentioned in passing that a recession was "possible" in the U.S. later this year...
Some pointed to troubles in the mortgage business, others to disappointing manufacturing data, yet others to that Greenspan speech. "Our minds are ... capable of mounting explanations for all manner of phenomena, and generally incapable of accepting the idea of unpredictability," writes derivatives trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his soon-to-be-published book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable...
Look out, Henry Kissinger, someone else may be hogging all the wattage at the next Council on Foreign Relations meeting. The prestigious foreign-policy organization, with members like Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice and Alan Greenspan, has nominated globetrotting actress and tabloid fixation ANGELINA JOLIE for membership. Selection of members is based on their demonstrated interest in world affairs. Jolie, who spent Oscar weekend visiting refugees in Chad for the United Nations and who has adopted a son from Cambodia and a daughter from Ethiopia, clearly fills that bill. Frankly, we can't imagine anyone better to disarm a rogue state...
...ALAN GREENSPAN, former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, during a business conference in Hong Kong, warning that the American economy could slip into recession by the end of the year...