Word: greenspans
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...these worrywarts was Alan Greenspan-a man not known for his gloominess (or his intelligibility). In August 2005, when he was still Federal Reserve chairman, Greenspan attributed what he called "lowered risk premiums" to the economic stability of the previous decade and said higher asset prices might reflect "the increased flexibility and resilience of our economy." But he warned that investors could turn cautious at any moment and that "history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums...
...other words, this can't go on forever. Greenspan has since delivered this message repeatedly, but markets paid no attention. Until, suddenly, they did. In a speech and question-and-answer session simulcast from Washington to conferences in Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Singapore on Feb. 26, the former Fed boss repeated his concerns about risk and mentioned in passing that a recession was "possible" in the U.S. later this year...
...Some pointed to troubles in the mortgage business, others to disappointing manufacturing data, yet others to that Greenspan speech. "Our minds are ... capable of mounting explanations for all manner of phenomena, and generally incapable of accepting the idea of unpredictability," writes derivatives trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his soon-to-be-published book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable...
...same day that Shanghai stumbled, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that orders of durable goods in America-a key indicator of economic health-had fallen sharply in January. That followed an unnerving speech by someone many consider the great economic forecaster of our era, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. On Feb. 26, he warned in a speech that investors couldn't rule out the possibility of a U.S. recession in 2007, noting that corporate profit margins "have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle." Most economists had figured...
...same day that Shanghai stumbled, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that orders of durable goods in America - a key indicator of economic health - had fallen sharply in January. That followed an unnerving speech by someone many consider the great economic forecaster of our era, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. On Feb. 26, he warned in a speech that investors couldn't rule out the possibility of a U.S. recession in 2007, noting that corporate profit margins "have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle." Most economists had figured...