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Nonetheless, Wall Street prognosticators are expected to have at least two years of growth estimates for the economy; securities analysts must also work up two years of earnings estimates for the companies they follow. That's never an easy task, even for a single company, but massive stimulus spending is making the job even tougher this year...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Economic Forecasting: A Foggier View Than Ever | 9/29/2009 | See Source »

...their wallets widely in 2011 - and all that pent-up demand will give a big boost to the economy. Others believe that two years of saving won't be enough to cure a decade or more of overspending. And with the consumer still focused on paying down debt, economic growth will be slow at best...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Economic Forecasting: A Foggier View Than Ever | 9/29/2009 | See Source »

...chief economist, David Wyss, says he thinks most economists are tackling the tricky problem of predicting what will happen in 2011 by doing what they always do: predict the economy will do about average. The problem is that what economists have come to believe is average growth for the U.S. economy in recent years has been falling. The Congressional Budget Office recently said it expects that the U.S. economy will grow on average about 2.2% a year. That's down from a trend expectation of about 3% just a few years ago. "The economy will feel better in 2011," says...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Economic Forecasting: A Foggier View Than Ever | 9/29/2009 | See Source »

...seems bad timing, then, for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to be launching the country's first Nasdaq-style board in October. After dithering for nine years, mainland regulators finally approved the bourse's proposal for a Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), which aims to help technology and other innovation-oriented start-ups get off the ground. Of the 150 companies that have applied to launch initial public offerings, 22 have won approval. Last week, the first batch of 10 enterprises in electronics, software, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology started accepting subscriptions from domestic investors (foreigners are excluded). (See pictures of China's infrastructure...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why China's Nasdaq Is No GEM | 9/28/2009 | See Source »

...China's problem is that the recent state-directed deluge of bank lending has resulted in a recovery in GDP growth but the money is not filtering down to the SME sector. Loans are going mainly to politically connected state-owned enterprises, which now comprise just 40% of the economy and create only a quarter of jobs. It's an entrenched situation that dates back to the days of economic central planning, and something that China's communist rulers do not seem to have the political gumption - or indeed the desire - to change. (Watch a video about China?s knockoff...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why China's Nasdaq Is No GEM | 9/28/2009 | See Source »

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