Word: growth
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...Toronto-based investment dealer CIBC World Markets. "I wouldn't be surprised if June was as bad as May," says CIBC economist Krishen Rangasamy, referring to Canada's trade deficit. He expects the country's balance of trade to begin improving in the fourth quarter, with annualized GDP growth of 2.5% and 2.1% in Canada and the U.S., respectively. That sounds promising, but it's largely predicated on a successful restructuring of GM and Chrysler and a rebound in consumer confidence in Canada and the U.S. If these prickly issues do not show signs of real improvement, it's likely...
Economists predict a contraction in the Canadian economy of between 1.4% and 1.9% this year, followed by tepid growth of 2.4% to 2.7% in 2010. If Canada hopes to get back on the road to recovery, not only will it have to erase its burgeoning trade deficit, but just as important, the country's volume of trade will have to make up for lost ground in 2009. Right now, achieving either looks to be a long...
...research universities, recruitment has been halted. More than 300 UC scientists have issued a white paper warning Schwarzenegger that the sharp reduction endangers the 10-campus system's position as the premier public university in the United States and could have a negative impact on California's future economic growth. According to UC officials, the cut in state funding brings the "amount of state investment in the University down to $2.4 billion - exactly where it was in real dollars a decade ago." During the same period, spending on state prisons has more than doubled, to $11 billion. (See pictures...
...froth in China's financial markets abounds. Long-futures interest on copper contracts on the Shanghai Metals Exchange - bets that the price of copper will continue to rise - recently exceeded the total amount of copper delivered into China in 2008. Research Edge's Barber believes Beijing is buying current growth at the expense of the future. Politically, he acknowledges, Beijing's leadership may not have had any other realistic choice when the developed world collapsed last fall. "But I have no doubt there will be pain down the road" because of the lending binge, he says...
...bigger issue that divides economists is whether China's growth spurt is sustainable. Goldman Sachs and several other major investment banks are increasing their China growth forecasts for the rest of this year and into 2010. Strong retail sales and household-survey data show that consumption is contributing to growth and may help sustain it even if government spending levels off. (See pictures of China's investment in Africa...