Word: growth
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Scan the bare figures and China appears to be on the skids. Exports are plummeting, experts are slashing growth forecasts and unemployment could rise to its highest level since 1949, the year the People's Republic was founded. But if President Hu Jintao feels the heat, he isn't letting anyone see him sweat. Despite the massive challenges Beijing faces, the Chinese leadership seems to regard 2009 much as Michael Corleone viewed the day of his godson's baptism in The Godfather - this year, China settles all business...
...Zurich-based Barry Callebaut, one of the world's leading manufacturers of industrial cocoa and chocolate. The company maintained stable sales volumes and increased profits by 4.7% in the fiscal period ending in February of this year, which spokeswoman Josiane Kremer attributes to the firm's expansion into high-growth emerging markets such as Eastern Europe, Russia and China, as well as market share gains in North America. (See pictures of trade between China and Africa...
...only Swiss chocolate makers who are thriving while others are struggling. The recession-bucking trend is also reported by Cadbury, which is expecting to deliver a 4-6% growth in 2009, and by U.S. manufacturer Hershey, whose predicted net sales growth for this year is in the range...
...woefully slow" to implement them. In the months ahead, China's economy will instead be driven by the government's $585 billion stimulus spending program and easy credit. This may prove to be enough to stave off a major economic contraction, but government measures alone will not rekindle high growth rates...
...later in the year. Absent a recovery in China's hugely important export sector, "the bigger risk in China is of a 'W' shaped outcome," Wood says. In other words, after a brief, stimulus-driven spike, the economy will resume its downward track later in the year. Inevitably, growth will return. But Wood says a second downturn could be perilous and deep if current government measures artificially and temporarily prop up marginal manufacturers that otherwise would go bust (China's total production capacity exceeds domestic demand by a factor of 10), and if tens of billions of dollars in loans...