Word: growths
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Even if he fulfills his goals, the prospects for the economy are touch and go. The standard forecast is that growth of real G.N.P. will slow to about 4% in the current quarter and 2% or 3% in the fourth?partly because the recent pace just cannot be sustained, partly because inflation will weaken the economy. Real G.N.P. is expected to be essentially flat in the first half of 1979. It is anyone's guess whether the slowdown will fulfill the definition of recession: two straight quarters of decline in real G.N.P. and mounting unemployment...
...bright side of the orthodox wisdom is that growth will resume, moderately, in the second half of next year and the economy will not suffer a credit crunch but only a squeeze late this year and early next. In the New York financial community, the betting is that interest rates will go up a bit more, but not much; that Miller will get the money supply under control; that loan demand will fall as the economy slows; that Government borrowing will be heavy, but enough money will be left to meet the reduced borrowing demands of most?...
...Miller's advantages in fighting inflation is that the battle has become Topic A for consumer and Cabinet officer alike. As recently as March 8, when Miller was sworn in, Government policy was still focused on stimulating the economy to faster growth in order to bring down unemployment. That goal has been achieved, at an inflationary price; the jobless rate in June fell to a four-year low of 5.7%. Now the talk in Washington and the country is all of tight budgets, spending hold-downs and the long effort needed to bring prices under control...
...arrived in Washington to rally the citizenry against the enemy, much as the Texas Rangers rode in to restore law-and-order in the Borger of his youth. He quickly put the Fed on a course of raising interest rates sharply, to hold back the inflationary growth of money supply and to keep dollars at home. In private debates and public remarks, Miller has pleaded with the White House, of which he is independent, to launch a determined anti-inflationary policy of its own. Neither his actions nor his words differed greatly from those of his predecessor, Arthur Burns...
...surging but vulnerable economy just enough so that inflation gradually subsides, but not so much as to sink the nation into a recession. Administration officials refer to this as guiding the economy to a "soft landing" from its too-rapid pace in the quarter just ended. Estimates of production growth in the second quarter cluster around an annual rate of 9%. Miller prefers to talk of reaching a "sustainable path of growth" of about 4% that can be followed year in, year out without either accelerating inflation or raising joblessness. A 3% rate, he says, would mean more unemployment...