Word: growths
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...Japan's economy lumbers forward, its lending to Asia should help recovery there, as will its imports of Asian goods. The heft of Japan's economy means every small uptick will help the U.S. export more. "The difference in lost output between -3% growth and 2.5% growth in Japan over 24 months is equal to the GDP of China," says Courtis...
China, meanwhile, is on track for 7% to 8% growth, and Asia's battered tigers appear to have bottomed out, according to Courtis. But Russia is far from recovery. And the choice this year in Latin America, says Moises Naim, editor of Foreign Policy magazine, is "between slowdown or meltdown. There's no other option." But the board agreed that this year's performance by the emerging economies will depend less on their own policy choices than on core country growth...
Thailand, Korea and Indonesia have stopped reforming their banks and other instruments of "crony capitalism," says Courtis, but are still managing to claw back toward growth by a simple strategy: "You crush domestic demand, you crush your currency, so imports collapse and everything goes to the export sector." A year ago, he explains, Korea had zero foreign exchange reserves; today it has $48 billion, equal to 12% of GNP. Thailand's are at 11% of GNP. But this strategy depends crucially on boosting exports to developed countries, particularly the U.S., which will hang on choices made in Washington...
Jiang's real focus, however, is not on these issues. It is on the domestic economy. He, Premier Zhu Rongji and the leadership around them are worried that without continued high growth, China might revert to the chaos he witnessed during the Cultural Revolution. "It's the economy, stupid!" could just as easily be Jiang's mantra as Clinton's. His prescription--which sometimes strikes me as too much of a contradiction in terms to work--is for a "socialist market economy," in which free markets and free ideas are encouraged until things get boisterous or too messy. Then central...
Chinese planners say they need annual growth of 8% to make progress on their problems, and they acknowledge that growth fell below that level last year. Though there is pressure on China to devalue its currency--a cheaper renminbi would help revitalize exports--Jiang insisted that "the currency will stay stable. At the moment I can still feel confident about this...