Word: gruntal
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...into recession as surely as overbuilding of cars or offices. It all comes down to what the consumer will pay for. And in the Internet boom, "there was a false belief that businesses could continue to buy productivity-enhancing devices and invent consumption," says Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Gruntal. A prominent bull even through the bear market, Battipaglia has learned how dramatically things can change. So should we all, so that in the next recession we can make different mistakes...
Joseph Battipaglia, chairman of investment policy at Gruntal & Co., a major brokerage company, predicts an actual decline in the rate of the 30-year Treasury bond to around 5.75% by year's end and possibly to 5.5% sometime in 2000. Barton Biggs, chairman of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Investment Management, is generally the most pessimistic of the board members, but on this subject he goes Battipaglia one better. His prediction: "A year from now [the 30-year Treasury rate] will be in the area...
Pullman, 36, has been working this area since the early '90s, first for investment firm Gruntal and then in partnership with Fahnestock & Co. Last month he shook off those names and set up the Pullman Group to chase celebrity bonds in a big way and, he hopes, brand himself as the top name in this esoteric field. He and others say the bonds will ultimately extend to all sorts of intellectual property that generates a steady stream of income: patents, authors' royalties and writers' residuals from TV reruns and film libraries...
...issue there was near unanimity. "There will be more layoffs," said Perrin Long, an analyst at Lipper Analytical Services, which studies securities firms. "The brokerages could run much leaner than they are now." Concurred Jack Barbanel, senior vice president of Gruntal & Co.: "The message is clear -- Wall Street is tightening its hatches." Long predicts that as many as 24,000 securities-industry employees will lose their jobs over the next twelve to 18 months -- and even that, he believes, is not enough. If Wall Street hopes to stay profitable in the troubled times ahead, Long thinks a safer number...
Politics is also playing a role in the stock surge. Says Ignatius Teichberg, a vice president at Gruntal & Co. brokerage firm: "The market will continue to rise because the investment community anticipates a Reagan victory in November." One reason for this is lingering faith among investment managers in an old rubric that says that stock prices usually rise during election years, but they climb higher and longer when the Republicans win than when the Democrats do. But the Dow industrials have not risen in the first year of a Republican Administration since 1925, after Calvin Coolidge was elected...
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