Word: guerrillas
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...friendliest legislature since the collapse of communism. But Putin's bid to be the boss Russian voters clearly crave is based almost entirely on the war in Chechnya, where Moscow's troops have taken control of much of the rebel republic while suffering minimal losses. But the Chechen guerrilla forces have for the most part simply retreated into the mountains. It is the next phase of the war, in which the Chechens seek to make Moscow pay an unacceptably high price in casualties for their territorial gains while the Russians hope to choke off Chechen supply lines, that may decide...
...elections are over, Russia may be more inclined to seek a political solution. Seizing Grozny is, after all, primarily of symbolic importance, since most of the Chechen rebel forces have retreated intact into the mountains. But Putin may not want to still have his army deployed in a hostile guerrilla environment six months from now when he goes to the electorate to seek the presidency...
This could be where it gets bloody, although by now the battle for Grozny may be mostly symbolic. Chechen forces repelled a Russian armored assault on the center of their besieged capital Wednesday, with the AP reporting that guerrilla fighters had killed a number of Russian troops and left a column of tanks and armored personnel carriers burning in the streets. Russia took heavy losses when it stormed Grozny in the 1994-1996 war, and the capital?s outnumbered and outgunned defenders are hoping to make the Russians pay a heavy price for taking the city. Despite the specter...
...prepared to talk to the Chechens. But with even Malik Saydulayev, head of the new Chechen puppet government created in Moscow, calling for talks with more moderate Chechen commanders, some form of deal may be in the works. Russia has plainly won this phase of the war, forcing the guerrilla army of President Aslan Mashkadov to retreat from every urban center in the country other than the capital...
...capture of Grozny may put a symbolic seal on Russia?s victory, but that victory remains partial. After all, guerrilla wars aren?t won by capturing territory, and the Chechen forces have retreated mostly intact from the Russian advance. They're already making life difficult for Russian forces by night in many of the areas under Moscow's control, and a protracted guerrilla war against fighters based in the mountains of the south will mean mounting Russian casualties in exchange for few tangible gains. That gives Russia an incentive to try and divide the Chechen resistance with concessions...