Word: guesswork
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...some, a man who bothers to paint a blade of grass is an anachronism who must have been born in the previous century. The late Bernard Berenson, going on guesswork, believed that Wyeth was dead ("What a pity America has starved its painters," he murmured). No foreign museums or collectors have ever bought his work...
...dissenting minority, puts it - has its limits. Economists have neglected the subject for so long that their theories of how stimulus works are shockingly underdeveloped. Many of the arguments they make for one proposal or another are the product not so much of economics as of common sense, guesswork and ideology. The motley mix of tax cuts for families and business, aid to states, infrastructure spending, health-care spending and alternative-energy investment that constitutes Obama's stimulus plan is partly the product of campaign promises and political compromises. But it's also a good reflection of the current muddled...
...much more precise cost-benefit analysis ahead of time. "A drug can take 12 years or longer to develop from start to finish," says Steve Sembler, who oversees Roche's U.S. commercial operations. "Diagnostics give us a much longer-term perspective and take a lot of the guesswork out of the process...
...large part, such massive miscalculations have less to do with politics than with the simple fact that epidemiology involves an inordinate amount of guesswork. Routine re-evaluations of existing data often result in data shifts, sometimes huge ones, which global health experts and epidemiologists have come to expect. "If you go up to a little clinic in Africa, first of all, the staff are overwhelmed with patients," says Nahlen, who used to do monitoring work for WHO. The data, if it's properly recorded, then goes up to the officials, who may also be overwhelmed. Those records then get passed...
...replication in a trial last year. At issue is the fact that researchers still don't know exactly how the body defends against HIV. Without critical knowledge of the precise immune factors, or correlates, that prevent infection, testing any vaccine candidate that functions by triggering immune defenses would be guesswork. That's why, Fauci says, he rejected the proposal to do a large trial, involving thousands of patients and numerous immune correlates. "What I will entertain is a leaner, meaner and smaller trial that precisely asks and answers, 'Does the vaccine work and is it successful in lowering viral load...