Word: gunaratna
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...Singapore-based al-Qaeda expert Rohan Gunaratna asserts that the two groups are much more closely linked, that bin Laden himself oversaw the formation of their alliance "soon after U.S. troops entered Afghanistan. But now this understanding has become very deep. There's integration between the organizations." It amounts to a division of labor: the Taliban focus on southern Afghanistan and Hizb-i-Islami on the east, which frees al-Qaeda "to use its limited strength for operations overseas," explains Gunaratna. (Several U.S. and Afghan intelligence sources, however, suspect al-Qaeda engineered a June 7 suicide bombing in Kabul that...
...Gunaratna, for one, believes a revitalized Taliban operating with relative freedom in Pakistan not only undermines the new Afghan government but also feeds the risk of terrorism abroad. "Al-Qaeda is able to survive because of its link with the Taliban," he says. In short, they are still harboring al-Qaeda?but in Pakistan, not Afghanistan...
...Rohan Gunaratna, author of an admired study of al-Qaeda, goes further. Mohammed's arrest, he thinks, has "cut al-Qaeda's operational ability by 50% at least in the next one to two years." Gunaratna's judgment is based on Mohammed's experience and his ruthlessness. Mohammed has been involved in international terrorism at least since 1995, when he and his nephew Ramzi Yousef--who organized the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center--planned to blow up a dozen airliners over the Pacific. Mohammed, says Gunaratna, "always thought big. His capacity to conceptualize, plan and implement low-cost...
Still, the international terrorist network has proved itself infinitely adaptable. There are plenty of potential lieutenants waiting to replace Mohammed, even though they may lack his experience. In that regard, Gunaratna and U.S. sources mention Tawfiq bin Atash, otherwise known as Khallad, a Yemeni. Bin Atash attended a notorious meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in January 2000, at which two of the Sept. 11 hijackers were also present, and is thought to have run--under Mohammed's guidance--the operation later that year to bomb the U.S.S. Cole in Aden harbor. According to reports out of Pakistan, bin Atash...
...What makes this situation so unsettling is the MILF's history of hitting back hard when it becomes desperate. "The nature of the MILF has always been particularly vengeful and retaliatory," says author Gunaratna. Following the last major campaign against the MILF in 2000, Salamat also gave an anguished call to would-be jihadis?and many welcomed his invitation. On Dec. 30, 2000, several bombs went off across Manila, killing 22 people and wounding more than 100. An Indonesian JI operative named Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi was eventually caught and convicted for possessing one ton of TNT. He confessed that...