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...start ignoring. Three said they disregarded the index of leading indicators, originally devised at the Commerce Department but now compiled by the Conference Board, a business group. Forecasters want new hard data, and the index "consists entirely of already released information and the Conference Board's forecasts," says Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs. (The leading-indicators index topped a similar survey by the Chicago Tribune in 2005, it turns out.) The monthly employment estimate put out by payroll-service firm ADP got two demerits, mainly because it doesn't do a great job of predicting the Labor Department employment numbers...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: When Economic Indicators Aren't Worth That Much | 2/1/2010 | See Source »

...recession has shifted from the consumer to the corporate sector." And it's possible that corporate cutbacks could lead to a relapse among consumers. "The main downside risk probably lies in sharper-than-expected multiplier effects via the dramatic deterioration in the labor market," warned Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius on Monday after predicting that consumer spending would rise for the rest of the year. "Both the weekly and monthly labor market indicators still show an accelerating employment contraction...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Is the Economy Starting to Recover? Or Just Less Bad? | 3/26/2009 | See Source »

...left now agree that a massive stimulus measure is needed--and soon. The éminence grise of Republican economic advisers, Harvard's Martin Feldstein, raised some eyebrows in October by saying the stimulus package might need to be as big as $300 billion. Already that seems timid. Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs, is telling clients he expects Obama's stimulus package to be $400 billion to $500 billion a year in order to compensate for a retrenchment in personal spending. Regardless of the final size, here are some of the likely elements of Obama's plan...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Jump-Starting the Obama Presidency | 11/26/2008 | See Source »

...economists are urging a total stimulus of at least $300 billion, or 2% of GDP. A few say $500 billion or $600 billion makes more sense--and that's on top of the hundreds of billions already committed to bailing out financial institutions. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius, who is in the $500 billion camp, estimates that private spending will drop by at least 6% of GDP over the next year or two. To keep that retrenchment from yanking the economy downward into depression, government must step...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Will Washington's Stimulus Plan Work? | 11/13/2008 | See Source »

...generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before." That sounds bad. But even if the damage is restricted to U.S. mortgage markets, a $2 trillion reduction in the supply of loans could still result, estimates Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Bracing for a Recession | 11/29/2007 | See Source »

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