Word: hay
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...rugged outcropping where Freeport has found a modest ore body. If the site is mined, Wright worries, what will happen to a gurgling, gushing spring that forms the headwaters of Niagara Creek, which in turn fills a large reservoir Wright uses to irrigate a wide green hay meadow...
...there is a set of numbers that may deserve to be taken seriously. Joel Hay, a health economist for the Hoover Institution at Stanford, has used a statistical tool called "back calculation" to analyze data on AIDS infections. His surprising conclusion: about 640,000 Americans carry the virus. If he is right, the epidemic, while still devastating, may be only half as widespread as generally believed...
...Hay's calculation is based on the observation that in a specific group of people carrying the AIDS virus, a certain percentage will develop symptoms within a given period of time. For example, it appears that roughly 6% will come down with the disease in the second year after infection. Since the Government has accurate figures on how many people have developed AIDS, Hay was able to work backward to figure out the number of those who carry the virus...
...economist uses his techniques to predict the rate at which new AIDS cases will be reported, and his projections seem to be on target. Says a Government scientist: "Every month Hay's numbers look better and better, while the official estimates look worse...
AIDS activists doubt Hay's figures and fear that they could cause the nation to become less concerned about the disease. The critics think that the use of anti-AIDS drugs has delayed the onset of symptoms in many people and thus made the economist's calculations erroneous...