Word: hellers
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...almost identical to the one posted in May. If the deficit keeps expanding at the current pace, it will total $168 billion by year's end, a 13% increase over 1985's record level. Plainly, the widely expected turnaround in the balance of trade is now overdue. Says Walter Heller, chief economic adviser to Presidents Kennedy and Johnson and one of many economists who had predicted that the trade deficit would surely be shrinking by now: "This is a staggering surprise. We have to admit we were off base on timing...
...year, modestly in the U.S. and more robustly in Europe and Asia. But the economists acknowledged several threats to their predictions, including an increase in global trade protectionism, the long-running Latin American debt crisis and the still rising U.S. budget deficit. In the words of Walter Heller, chief economic adviser to Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, the forecast was "at best, one of muted or at least well-tempered optimism...
...problem, said Heller, is that "we have gotten trapped in a maze of economic lags." Falling world oil prices, for example, reached a new low of $8 on spot markets last week. Cheap oil is putting more money into the pockets of consumers and most businesses, and it will ultimately stimulate sales and investment. But in the short run, the oil-price drop has wreaked havoc among U.S. energy producers, which have cut back on exploration and production, thereby dragging down U.S. output and employment...
...ongoing participant in Board of Economists meetings is Editorial Assistant Mary Catherine Orr, who coordinated this and some 40 earlier conferences. Says she: "Board Member Walter Heller and I have been involved with them longer than anyone else. I've become fond of the members, since I've known many of them for so long. Like all smart people, they are easy to work with." We find them highly informative as well...
Some Wall Streeters speculate that Heller might join forces with Johnson and the two other Reagan appointees to form a new majority in favor of faster money growth and lower interest rates. That could undermine the leadership of Volcker, who fears that stimulative policies could rekindle inflation. Heller, though, was playing the diplomat. Said he: "I have a lot of respect for the chairman...